October 21, 2014

ADC2: Challenging Predictions

android_dev_challenge_2This past Monday, the week-long entry period for the Android Developer Challenge 2 (ADC2) opened up. This $2 million contest will eventually crown thirty prize-winners, with the top winner walking away with $250,000. With judging largely in the hands of ordinary users (only part of second round will involve expert judges), this version of the Challenge should have some remarkable differences compared to the original challenge of a year-plus ago.

That being said, here are eight predictions for how ADC2 will turn out:

  1. Fewer applications will be submitted. While there are more qualified Android developers today than before, ADC2 also got a lot less hype than the original ADC, and the prize package is smaller if I remember the amounts correctly. The original ADC had over 1,700 entries; I will guess that ADC2 will get between 1,000 and 1,500.
  2. ADC2 will have same-but-different judging controversies. With ADC1, it would appear that the judging panel was not in position to deal with the volume of entrants, causing first-round applications to be judged more superficially. ADC2’s reliance on end users for judging will also likely result in superficial results, as not everybody who signs up to judge will take the same amount of time testing the applications and placing their votes.
  3. ADC2 will have overall higher quality applications. I was not a judge on the original ADC, but if the quality of applications submitted as entries mirrored the quality of the initial applications put on the Android Market, quality would have been very uneven. Some applications, such as the overall winners, were outstanding, and many applications were…limited in capability. Seeing what it took to win the first ADC, I expect more entrants to ADC2 will have built compelling applications. Besides, I suspect there have been some teams at work on building ADC2 applications for many months.
  4. ADC2 will have more established, recognized entrants. While the original ADC had some “brand names”, ADC2 is even more likely to get entries from firms with existing noteworthy Web sites, iPhone apps, or the like. Firms realize that the exposure from ADC2 – even just getting in the top 200 from the first round – can be very useful, perhaps even more than the cash prizes themselves.
  5. Some people will toss out unfounded accusations about how the first ADC was conducted. There is little question that the first ADC had many issues, but if you are going to trot out year-old dirty laundry, at least have the common decency to provide evidence for claims of bias or whatnot.
  6. ADC2 will not be as harmful to Android. The first ADC, rightly or wrongly, is inextricably tied to the “Summer of Silence”, when all community assistance from Google evaporated between the close of the ADC first-round judging and the publication of the final results. This was a huge setback for community momentum. It is less likely ADC2 will coincide with a similar period of “silent treatment”, and the Android community is in much better shape to both cope with such behavior and take action to attempt to reverse it.
  7. I predict that I will write a piece sometime in the next couple of months about better ways to spend $2 million to make Android a success among developers.
  8. In the end, ADC2 will be much more “ho-hum” than the original ADC. There will be brief excitement when the public judging applications are made available, and there will be lots of discussion about the winners. And, no doubt, some of the winning applications will go on to be major contributors to the Android ecosystem. But there just does not seem to be as much emotion around ADC2 right now, and it feels unlikely that it will change during the judging process.

Certainly, I hope that I am wrong on the more negative of these predictions.