Analyst Predicts 5 to 6 Million Nexus One Phones Sold in First Year

It seems that market analysts are seeing the Nexus One as a major step forward for Google in the smartphone market.  Doug Anmuth of Barclay Capital is predicting that the search giant will move 5 to 6 MILLION Nexus One Handsets in 2010.  Let’s put this into perspective here.

  • Motorola‘s 2010 smartphone shipments are expected to be around 13 million units.  The projection from Anmuth puts Nexus One sales at just under HALF of Motorola‘s projections.
  • The iPhone’s projected sales for 2010 is 36 million according to Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray.  While the Nexus One projections are nowhere near this number, this new projection shows how much more of a foothold Google has gotten with Android when compared to the G1 launch sales in 2008.  The G1 sold about 1 million in it’s launch year, making it the 5th best selling smartphone that year.  If the Nexus One sells 6 million, it will be the best Android Powered handset launch to date, and will give Google a revenue of $2.6 BILLION.

If this projection is right, Google will sell 16% of what Apple is projected to sell of their iPhone handset.  While this number seems small when you first look at it, it actually marks a rather large increase against iPhone sales for an Android phone.  Now, projections are just educated guesses, but it shows a promising future for the Nexus One and Google.

Google is not known as a retailer, but this launch is placing them directly in the middle of the Smartphone melee, and builds much needed momentum for the platform.  Exciting times for Android lovers everywhere!

  • That is a nice number for Google considering that there is no store front for consumers to go and give one a spin. I wonder what they could do if they had kiosks where the potential customers could get their hands on the device.

  • modelportfolio2003

    What is also impressive about a 6 million run rate for 2010 is that the phone has been launched initially in only 4 countries—US, Hong Kong, Singapore and UK, while the iPhone distribution is in many countries around the world, often with many carriers in each country. So if you were to compare like for like sales in just four countries, the disparity would seem much smaller. I appreciate that Google will expand the distribution beyond 4 countries but still very impressive first year launch.


  • Super. Now if only Android had a free app that let people instantly find directions to over 100,000 stores, kiosks, restrooms, elevators, etc. in hundreds of malls across the country, like Point Inside…. foreshadowing….

  • I agree because as soon as Verizon gets one I am buying it. 🙂

  • Having bought the Nexus One and playing with it, strikes me that Google & the analysts are being quite optimistic. The Nexus One doesn't offer any real advantages over other Android handsets. In fact, the Droid by Motorola offers a very handy keyboard. The Android OS is very buggy. And when it comes to customer service going first to Google, then on to HTC for customer service is very awkward. Then you have to ship it off somewhere…

    Apple has made it very easy. Call Apple, they deal, or go to the store. I have no particular loyalty to Apple, but they have worked out a very compelling package. I am not sure customer service is Google's forte, or even something that interesting to them. From my first experiences and issues with the Nexus One, I don't get the sense that it is.

  • Android OS is very buggy? Used it over a year and only had one or two spontaneous reboots. System is rock solid and have all features I need.

    • hazydave

      Totally agree. I'm a part Palm users, and there was rarely a day in which my Treo, T/X, or V didn't need to be reset.

      I've had two system lock-ups in Android since I got my DROID. And at least one of these was largely application-based… the Gallery app crashed in a video, but seemed to have locked up the screen somehow (this sort of lockup is possible in most GUI systems, where the GUI is locked but the OS proper is still fine).

      I know a bunch of iPhone and iPod Touch users. They're usually doing a reset about every other month… so I'm ahead of the game, already.

  • ari-free

    where's the marketing? there's no more link to nexus on…no tv ads…only android fans will realize that this thing exists

  • Jim

    If Google doesn't get its customer service act together they will never see these numbers.

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  • At the rate sales are going, will they even hit 1,000,000 by year's end?

  • One doesn't offer any real advantages over other Android handsets

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