Eugene Kaspersky Says Android Could Dominate with 80% Market Share

Eugene Kaspersky, the computer security expert behind the software that bears his name, thinks that Android could end up completely dominating the mobile platform market.  And by dominate, he means upwards of 80-percent of the landscape.  Speaking at Barcelona earlier this week, Kaspersky indicated that players like RIM and Apple could be fighting for the remaining 20% should things not change.

“I believe that if Apple, BlackBerry, Microsoft … don’t change their strategy very soon we will soon have the same mobile operating system landscape as we have with computers.”

We’re all for Android taking the biggest piece of the pie, but we never thought it would reach this level.  Do any of you guys think Kaspersky is on on the money or are you expecting a pretty even split among the players?

  • Nathan

    i think it may get to 60-70% but not much more than that. apple and rim have too large of a user base to take it all.

    and microsoft, well, when windows 8 ARM comes out they’ll grab a lot of the tablet space back, and with nokia and WP7 they’ll grab some there, but still no true contender for android.

    • Bobby Z

      Yep, when WP7 comes out it will grab, oh, its already been out. Yes.. I mean when WP8 come out….

      • ari-free

        After looking at the benchmarks with the 3 major WP7 phones coming dead last behind the original Droid and blackberry torch…I just don’t see it for Microsoft. They should give it up and port Office to android.

  • acupunc

    One of the main things Kaspersky is overlooking is Windows 8.

    Dell leaked a road-map and Win8 may be here Jan 2012, earlier than the Jan 2013 generally expected.

    Win8 from everything I’ve read is being designed to run on phones, tablets, and desktops with unique UI for each.

    If Android isn’t allowed to grow it’s ecosystem to the desktop because Google is obstinate about Chrome OS & the cloud and keep holding Android back from being a full OS that can span phone to desktop, and if this continues and Win8 is released users will see, just like they did with netbooks, an opportunity to have a “unified ecosystem” amongst all their devices and software. This would have a huge impact on the mobile OS market.

    • ari-free

      The cloud is google’s biggest asset so of course they’re going to try to leverage it. GoogleTV is based on android, not chromeOS so that tells you which OS that google really thinks will be everywhere. We’ve also seen the extension of NDK and Renderscript for that touch the metal power. That moves android even deeper towards the direction of native apps. On the other hand, Microsoft loves C# managed code and they could kill the Windows platform if they insist on it for Windows8.

  • Jeremy

    Not sure what some people are smoking, but last i checked microsoft has an extremely poor track record with OS releases… Unless you are implying that everyone loved windows ME, Vista, or 7. Even XP was They have an even more dismal record with mobile OS… That being said windows 8 would have to be just sheerly the most awe inspiring amazing OS that was ever brought to be for MS to really have a chance… WP7 will only exist due to Nokia jumping in to the race… Nokia’s stocks have already plummetted the past few days since the announcement… Such doesnt spark consumer confidence… If google plays their cards right, they have a good chance at being the next OS king much like MS was with desktop OSes…

  • Sorin

    Once that all (most) applications will be web/HTML5 apps, the operating system won’t matter that much. I’m sure both Apple, RIM and Microsoft will be more than happy to run Android web apps on their platforms. The only advantage Android has at this point is that web apps are not there yet so the operating system is still relevant.

  • ari-free

    Yes, all those tip calculators can be done in html5 but all of the good apps, the really interesting apps, will use native code. That’s why NDK and renderscript are so important.

    And the problem for Windows8 is that they can port the OS to ARM, none of the Windows games will work. This app might work but not that and maybe this app will run but will be flaky. Not a good experience.

  • Barry

    To answer the question from the article, you are damn right Android will have 80-85% of the smart phone market.

  • hazydave

    I tend to think he’s right, for several reasons.

    First of all, Android is the only smart phone OS with serious momentum. Apple’s increased sales quite a bit, but the global smartphone market is growing so fast, this doesn’t show up as market share jumps. And they also tend to be seasonal — there’s a big jump for iPhones in the third quarter, after the new one comes out, and again at Christmas. I think Apple timed the Verizon introduction to create another huge blip in the first quarter this year, but that didn’t really blip the way they expected. And second quarter, sales drop to nearly nothing (by Apple’s standards, anyway) as everyone knows the new iPhone is on the way.

    Second… RIM. Everyone seems to think they’re done for, even as they sold more smartphones in 2010 than Apple. I don’t, necessarily, and here’s why. The Blackberry OS as we know it is probably going the way of SymbianOS. But they’re launch the new tablet based on QNX. If you’re not familar, QNX is a very stable, very modern OS that’s used for things like toaster ovens and nuclear reactors… particularly the latter. Blackberry bought QNX outright, and it looks interesting on the tablet, and will almost certainly be the basis for the next generation of smart phone OS.

    However, even more interesting is the fact RIM claims they’ll be running Android applications on the Playbook. I wrote over a year ago I though RIM should adopt Android, but keep their enterprise server, and port the enterprise client to Android. Works as well, maybe even better, if you have the Blackberry/QNX environment as an API option alongside Android. This is still a win for Android, and helps keep RIM from being eaten by some Android competitor who develops better Enterprise-level tools for Android. If overnight, every Blackberry were an Android device, no one would be debating the certain ascendancy of Android anymore. So sure, it won’t happen overnight, and RIM still need to develop more competitive hardware (step #1: stop using Marvell ARM chips), but they’d have a unique spin on product differentiation within the Android market.

    Then there’s Microsoft. They’re powerful, rich, and willing to lose money for a decade on something they believe will eventually go profitable. And they’re now in bed with Nokia, the world’s largest cell phone company. Should be a no-brainer, eh?

    I don’t buy it. For one, that new alliance has suddenly cast every hardware vendor who’s not Nokia into a second-class position in the Windows 7 Phone hierarchy. This is just what MS and Toshiba did for HD-DVD. It seemed great for those two… Toshiba didn’t have to make money on hardware, due to disc royalties, so they could sell the HD-DVD players at or below cost, while Blu-ray makers actually had to turn a profit on the hardware, with the possible exception of the Sony PS3 as a game console. In fact, this was very much the game console model. And as a result, only Toshiba ever made HD-DVD hardware (to understand why they should have know this would fail, look up the old 3DO game console, to see why this failed in the gaming business a decade or more earlier). So other companies may dabble in WP7 (or not… Motorola already said “not for us”), but they can’t be too dependent, since Nokia is now able to make WP7 decisions that benefit Nokia more than anyone else. It’s a bad business decision for other hardware companies to get too close to WP7 now.

    The other problem is Windows 8. Yeah, there’s talk of smartphone support, and an ARM version… we’ll see. Intel pretty much demanded Windows 8 for smart phones and tablets, to go with their scaled-down Atom for smartphones and tablets. Problem there… “scaled down Atom”. Today’s Atoms are already questionable on most Windows software. Microsoft might manage to launch Windows for tablets/smartphones as essentially a second OS, with touch/low-end apps being largely different than desktop/laptop apps, but that would be a good trick. And the ARM A9 is already about as fast, per clock cycle, as the Atoms… but much lower power, even today. And they’re moving upwards, with software that’ll see future systems as the most powerful in their class, not the least.

    Also, there’s bound to be a collision of some kind here with WP7. Tablets are the new digital camera, at least this year. Lemme ‘splain. When cameras moved to digital, companies from many different areas saw their opportunity to jump. Traditional film companies moved in: Nikon, Canon, Olympus, Pentax, etc. So did film companies: Kodak, Fujifilm, Agfa. And camcorder companies: Panasonic, Sony, and Canon (again). And some computer folks, like HP and Epson.

    So now, we have a new platform idea: the mobile device. These grew up from smartphones, which were really just PDAs with a cellular modem anyway. You have the computer folks: Apple (who lit the big bonfire here), HP, Dell, Acer, Toshiba, Lenovo, etc. And the phone people: RIM, Motorola Mobility, Samsung, HTC, etc. And even TV/screen/monitor folks, like LG, Viewsonic, and Sharp. And the PMP makers, like Creative Labs and Archos. And a whole slew of cheap Chinese CE companies. Like the cameras, not everyone will survive here, but this is another gold rush. It’s going to move VERY fast… and by the time Microsoft gets there with Windows 8, non-Windows tablets will be pretty mature.

    Missing from that list, Nokia. And that’s ironic, since they’re one of the first companies that did anything close to an internet tablet, with their N800 and similar devices. They need to launch a tablet to compete in this new market. But is this really a job for WP7, which is still shaking out as a cellphone OS? MeeGo’s probably a better answer for 2011, but Nokia’s already sank that boat — no one will trust them to support it. And MS, at least presently, claims Windows is for tablets… but Nokia isn’t an x86 builder. Do they get first crack at baby Atoms, or did they just exclude themselves from playing the tablet game this year?

    Either way, not having a good WP7 tablet will hurt WP7. As Nokia themselves said in their announcement, they need to “build and sustain a mobile ecosystem”. An ecosystem missing some of the pieces (alternate vendors, tablets, etc) will inherently fail against a more complete one. Even Apple’s feeling the pressure, and they were already on top, not building up from the ground.

    • ari-free

      yeah we can forget about meego. All it did was tease linux advocates away from serious android development with the promise that this would be the ‘real’ linux phone. Nokia decided to give them WP7 instead. What a joke.
      Android is the linux that made it. I hope we will see a shift away from x11/gnome/kde so that open source apps will have more presence on consumer devices.

  • Yury

    80% ? Well, it’s great! I think a linear approximation like y=mx*b via excel’s trend says the same. It’s not a bit reasonably good guess, because up to end of 2011 Research in Motion is going to expand cloud infrastructure. The second, Nokia and Microsoft conclude an alliance. After all I suppose that satiety of all things naturally produces a satiety of trend itself.

  • Kashimir

    On the long run it really comes down to who can dominate the sales in Asia, and at the moment the situation there looks great for android as the local manufacturers are increasingly gaining ground using android.