Report Finds Android Could Eclipse iOS Install Base Within a Year

We’ve seen our fair share of reports and studies over the last year which show Android’s market share on the rise.  With each quarter that passes another survey comes out telling us that our favorite platform is doing better than the competition.  At some point all this Android momentum has to catch up and push the install base beyond Apple, right?  According to Horace Dediu of asymco, this could happen within a year.

Using data that starts from the launch of both Android and iOS platforms, Dediu plotted the known activations across each quarter.  Four years in, Apple has around 191 million cumulative users whereas Android is at 83 million after 31 months.  Factoring in the impressive growth rate and doing a bit of math, the Android install base should overtake Apple at some point in the next twelve months.

To be fair here, this takes everything as it is today and assumes nothing changes.  We have no idea what either company or platform will be doing six months from now, nor what sort of options are available to customers.

One should be careful about drawing conclusions that this implies effective competition… iOS is growing at at least 100%/yr and Android’s second year was 65x bigger than its first. iOS growth is limited by the ramp rates of a limited portfolio of products. Android growth is limited by how quickly vendors can bring out products. Neither platform is demand constrained and hence they are competing for share of growth not for share of a fixed pie.

About author

Scott Webster
Scott Webster 6577 posts

Scott has been running AndroidGuys since 2007 and loves nothing more than reading up on the latest smartphone rumors. His other mobile efforts can be found on Android Update (CNET) where he covers Google's mobile platform.

You might also like

News and Rumors

Unofficial CyanogenMod 12.1 ROM released for Moto G 2014

For CM lovers out there you’ll be glad to hear that CyanogenMod 12.1 has been released for the 2014 Moto G which brings Android 5.1 to the device. It’s an

News and Rumors

Huawei intros its first Android Wear device, the Huawei Watch

Huawei kicked off its Mobile World Congress showing today with a new Android Wear smartwatch. Featuring an all-metal, stainless steel body, it comes with  a 1.4-inch 400×400 pixel full circular

News and Rumors

“End of October and Onwards” Sony Ericsson Delays 2.1 Update for Xperia Line

Sony Ericsson has officially pushed back the much-anticipated Android 2.1 update for their Xperia line of phones. Originally slated for Q3, the company now says the “revised plan is to start the roll-out from end of October and onwards”. Citing a need to ensure the right quality and user experience, SE’s announcement is likely going to ruffle a few feathers.

1 Comment

  1. useless tinyurls
    April 21, 07:39 Reply

    what is the use of reactions if all that is put there are dumb twitter links to the this page?

Leave a Reply