September 3, 2014

Tech Analyst: Android Shares Have Peaked in U.S. and Will Continue to Decline with iPhone 5

Oh boy.  Tech analyst Charlie Wolf of Needham & Company believes that Android’s market shares in the United States have already peaked.  What’s more, he anticipates that a recent decline in March is only the beginning of the platform’s decline in share.  As he sees it, Verizon customers are, by and large, only holding on to their Android phone until the next iPhone is released.  Come September and the rumored iPhone 5 launch, Android will see an even bigger decline.

The recent Wolf Bytes newsletter was sent out to investors and industry players and says that even an “arguably tepid” Verizon iPhone launch is indicative of things to come.  Apparently one singular report that shows a drop from 52.4% to 49.5% market share is enough to call these the golden era of Android.

Here’s where I see the biggest problem with this report.  Wolf himself sees the next major battleground for smart phones playing out on pre-paid markets.  I’m not sure if he knows this or not, but the iPhone does not factor into this segment whatsoever.  Android, on the other hand, has been showing significant strides in the no-contract market as Boost Mobile, Virgin Mobile, and other carriers expand their smart phone offerings.

And really, this whole thing is one of the only recent studies that show Android losing steam, let alone market share.  Just about every report we’ve read over the last six months contradicts Charlie’s findings.  Here’s one from today that says Nokia and RIM’s freefalls are helping Android more than Apple.  Further, Apple needs to do something new to compete with Android in the mid-range.  Might I suggest reading “A “Mini-iPhone” Is Now Considered “Critical” For Apple To Beat Android“.

Oh well, such is life.  As ridiculous as this Wolf Bytes newsletter sounds, there are other analysts calling for Windows Phone 7 to emerge triumphant over Android within 3 years.